Real Estate in 2026 Why Were Moving Toward a New Value Cycle

Real Estate in 2026: Why We’re Moving Toward a New Value Cycle

For the first time in a decade, the industry is dealing with the fact that the cost of capital has fundamentally shifted, and the assumptions made just a few years ago are being tested by today’s environment.

Moving Toward a New Value Cycle

There has been a lot of discussion lately about the “maturity wall” and the general stress facing the commercial real estate market. It’s a reality we are all navigating. For the first time in a decade, the industry is dealing with the fact that the cost of capital has fundamentally shifted, and the assumptions made just a few years ago are being tested by today’s environment.

At Excelsior Capital, we aren’t looking at this from a distance. Like many operators, we have a few assets with loans maturing this year. We are currently in the thick of those conversations—navigating tighter lending requirements and the reality of higher debt service. These aren’t easy hurdles, and they require a lot of transparency and work with our partners and lenders to find the right path forward for those specific properties.

But while we manage those challenges, we are also observing a market shift of a magnitude not seen in quite a while, and we believe this presents a significant opportunity.

What the 2026 Landscape Looks Like for New Investment

The strength of our portfolio and strategy lies in our asset-by-asset approach, which allows us to be very selective yet aggressive where we see opportunity.

Looking ahead at 2026, we see a few specific reasons to be optimistic about new acquisitions: 

  • Real Price Discovery: For a long time, there was a gap between what sellers wanted and what buyers could actually justify. We are finally seeing that gap close, and that may be in part due to the previously discussed debt maturity wall. Assets are being priced based on actual cash flows rather than future speculation or prior market pricing, which creates a much healthier entry point for new equity.
  • The “Supply Gap” is Real: Because it has been so difficult to get new construction off the ground over the last two years, we are heading toward a period where very little new inventory will be delivered. Acquiring quality, existing buildings today allows us to have prime positioning ahead of that shortage.
  • Operational Discipline Always Matters: In a low-rate environment, a lot of mistakes were hidden by market growth. Today, the success of an investment may come down to the day-to-day operations—controlling expenses, retaining tenants, and managing the P&L. Experienced operators will outperform those new to the market.

Looking Forward

We aren’t suggesting that the road ahead is without its bumps. Rising costs remain a challenge, and the lending environment is still finding its footing.

However, we believe we are entering a new cycle where value is created through discipline rather than just timing the market. For us, 2026 is about being selective. It’s about looking at each deal on its own merits and finding the opportunities that make sense not just for today, but for the next several years.

We believe the best way to build wealth in this climate is to stay grounded in the data, be transparent about the risks, and move forward only when the fundamentals are in our favor.

We invite you to schedule a call to explore our current view of the value cycle and see how our independent co-investment model aligns with your investment goals.

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Excelsior Capital

104 Woodmont Blvd, Suite 120
Nashville, TN 37205

investors@excelsiorgp.com

Disclaimer: Under no circumstances should any information presented on this website be construed as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities or other investments. This website does not contain the information that an investor should consider or evaluate to make a potential investment. Other materials related to investments in entities managed by Excelsior Capital are not available to the general public.

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