Geopolitical Risk Considerations: The Biden Administration and U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges
Podcast: Geopolitical Risk Considerations: The Biden Administration and U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges
[00:00 – 09:14] Exploring China’s Geopolitical and Military Ambitions
- Japan and South Korea have never had an independent diplomatic meeting outside of a more significant summit
- The U.S. and Japan have had their differences going back to World War II, but Japan and Korea never had the same forcing function
- China is playing a significant role in pushing Japan and Korea together as they trust China less than each other
- The Camp David Summit is about trying to make it more difficult for them to focus on historical issues and force them into the future
[09:15 – 17:39] Split Opinions on Responding to Economic Downturn and Taiwan Tensions
- Xi Jinping’s thinking is uncertain, and both a weak, inward-looking China and an aggressive, brittle China are possible
- Russia’s experiment of consolidating national unity by attacking Ukraine has not worked out
- Taiwan is different from Ukraine, and it is unclear what the U.S. commitments are with Taiwan
- Chinese people have delivered remarkable economic growth in the past decades, but now the growth numbers for this year are lower
[17:40 – 24:42] Examining the Challenges of the U.S.-China Conflict Over Taiwan
- The Biden team has three pillars of their approach: Invest, Align, and Compete with China
- Taiwan has strategic value as it is close to U.S. treaty alliances with Japan and the Philippines
- China trying to invade Taiwan is one of the hardest things militarily in the world
- The U.S. Navy is smaller than China’s, and U.S. facilities and people in the region would be under threat if a conflict arises
[24:43 – 37:22] Examining Command and Control in Southeast Asia
- U.S. could strike the Chinese mainland if a decision is made in Oval Office or White House Situation Room
- China hasn’t been involved in a major conflict for 50 years, and technology is different now
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